Which Tech Gadgets Will Be Phased Out This Decade?
Hindsight may always be 20-20, but you don’t need particularly great
foresight to know many of the gadgets on today’s market won’t be around
in 2020 given how quickly the tech industry keeps changing. In the first
half of the 2000s, retailers were buzzing about the prospects of
MP3 players and
netbooks, but by the end of the decade, those products had largely been replaced by
smartphones and
tablets.
As tempting as it may be to imagine otherwise, some of the gadgets
you may rely on most right now will likely suffer the same fate and be
killed off or made obsolete by the end of this decade. Sure, you may
still be able to find these products for sale in certain niche stores,
but they will no longer be produced for a mass-market audience.
“You can still find and buy
VCRs
and there are people still using mainframes from 1992, so it’s not like
this stuff disappears forever,” says Stephen Baker, an industry analyst
at the NPD Group. Baker notes that the main reason retailers continue
to market and sell outdated products is to cater to shoppers who buy
them for nostalgia’s sake, but for all intents and purposes the market
has left these products in the dust.
So which popular products today will join the likes of VCRs, cassette
players and transistor radios in the next few years? MainStreet asked
five tech analysts to offer their thoughts on the gadgets that will
largely be phased out by the end of this decade.
The days of spending $200 or more on a standalone GPS device won’t last much longer, analysts say.
“Portable navigation devices like those sold by TomTom and Garmin
will probably not be sold in 2020, just because mobile phones will have
taken on that function themselves and because GPS systems will be
standard equipment in cars,” says Charles S. Golvin, an analyst at
Forrester, a market research firm. As a result, there won’t be much of a
need to buy a product whose only function is to tell you directions.
If there is a demand for these GPS systems, it will likely come from a very specific segment of consumers.
“Maybe you could argue there will be a market for guys climbing
Mount Everest or long-distance truckers or the military, but for the
vast majority of consumers, standalone GPS systems will be irrelevant
and redundant,” Baker says. |
The
e-reader has already undergone significant changes in its short
history, evolving from a product with a keyboard to one with a
touchscreen and more recently being integrated into a kind of a
tablet-hybrid, but according to Golvin, the market for e-readers will
mostly disappear by the end of the decade.
“The tablet
will largely supplant the e-reader in the same way that the iPod
increasingly gets displaced by smartphones,” Golvin says. “Tablets will
take on the e-reader function of handling magazine, newspaper and book
reading.” In essence, spending money on an e-reader that can only handle
reading when tablets can do this and more will come to seem as useless
as buying a GPS system that can only look up directions when other
technology does this as well.
Just how small the e-reader market becomes may depend somewhat on
advancements in display technology. One of the biggest incentives for
consumers to buy a pure e-reader is to have an e-ink display (like
reading from a book) rather than a backlit display (like reading from a
computer screen), but according to Golvin, manufacturers are already
working on ways to merge the two reading experiences and create a tablet
that doubles as an authentic e-reader.
Even then, there may be still be some e-readers on the market at the beginning of next decade, but not many.
“It could be that by 2020 you can still buy a super cheap e-reader
for $20, but by and large, the volume of sales will be so close to zero
as to be indistinguishable, like CD players are now,” he says. |
Several of the products that are likely to be phased out will ultimately be the victim of advances to smartphones, and none more directly than feature phones.
Tim Bajarin, a technology columnist and principle analyst with
Creative Strategies, predicts that 80% of all phones sold in 2015 will
be smartphones and every phone sold in 2018 will be a smartphone. This
rapid decline will come about thanks to a drop in prices for consumers
and an increase in revenue opportunities for carriers.
“Even today, the money that is made is not on the phone itself but on
the services,” Bajarin says, noting that carriers will opt to “fade
out” their feature phone option in favor of smartphones with more
services. |
When Apple unveiled the iPhone 4S,
smartphone competitors probably weren’t the only ones beginning to
sweat. Digital camera makers also have much to be worried about. Apple’s
newest phone has a killer 8-megapixel camera that takes in more light
and records video at 1080p HD video. Until recently, those kind of specs
were unique to digital cameras, but increasingly smartphones are taking
over the market.
“Flip cameras
went bye-bye and now low-end camera functions are being taken over by
smartphones,” says Rob Enderle, principle analyst for the Enderle Group.
Going forward, consumers will have less incentive to carry around a
camera when they already have a phone in their pocket that takes quality
pictures. “The point-and-shooters – and particularly the cameras that
sell for under $200 – will eventually go away and be replaced by
cellphones that do the same thing.”
On the other hand, Enderle predicts more expensive and high-tech
cameras may have a brighter future, though not by much, as a smaller
market of photo enthusiasts seek out professional-quality cameras that
go above and beyond what’s offered on a phone. |
DVD players are in the process of being phased out now by Blu-ray players and will likely be erased from the consumer landscape by the end of the decade.
“The DVD player should be replaced by digital delivery,” says Ian
Olgeirson, a senior analyst at SNL Kagan, who points to streaming movie
services like Netflix as being the future. “Blu-rays and whatever the
next generation high-end movie format emerges could prolong the lifespan
because of challenges around streaming, but eventually the disc is
going to be phased out.”
The idea of placing a disc into a DVD player to watch a movie will
eventually seem as outdated as placing a record on a turntable, which
brings us to the next product on our list… |
Using CDs and DVDs to view and store content will soon be a thing of the past.
“CDs are clearly not going to make it over the next 10 years
because everything will shift over to pure digital distribution, so all
those shiny discs will be gone,” Bajarin says. This will be due in part
to more streaming options for music and movies and a greater reliance on
digital downloads, combined with more efficient storage options for
consumers, including USB drives, external hard drives and of course the
cloud.
“All a CD is is a medium for distribution of content … and
within 10 years, you won’t need a physical transport medium,” Bajarin
says. |
Popular video game systems such as the
Wii,
PlayStation and
Xbox
may still be in homes next decade, but they will look much different.
Rather than buy a separate console, Enderle expects that consumers will
instead buy smart televisions with a gaming system built into it, not to
mention tablets and smartphones that will continue to ramp up their
gaming options.
“It looks like analog game systems won’t make it until the end of the
decade,” Enderle says. “You are already seeing the Wii have a tough
time holding on to the market and PlayStation has been struggling for a
while.”
The gaming systems that will succeed in the future will be those that
manage to move away from being focused solely on video games and more
on other entertainment options such as movies, evolving from a
traditional game console into more of a set-top box.
Source Yahoo Shopping